US Inflation Expected at 3.6% on October 14: Will the Federal Reserve Raise Rates Again?
The consensus for September consumer inflation is 3.6% a year (3.4% previously), and markets have cut the odds of an October hike to about 20%.
On October 14 the US publishes September inflation. The consensus expects prices to rise 0.6 percent month on month (0.4 previously) and 3.6 percent year on year (3.4 previously). Core inflation, excluding food and energy, is expected at 0.2 percent monthly and 2.5 percent annually (2.4 previously). On October 15 retail sales (+0.3 percent expected) and producer prices follow.
The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points in September — the first hike since 2023, according to the Newsquawk preview. The minutes showed that all members backed it, and most see another hike as appropriate by year-end. Weak jobs data cut expectations of an October hike from about 70 to about 20 percent.
Several voting members (Jefferson, Williams, Bowman) signalled no urgency, while Waller expects more hikes but not necessarily at consecutive meetings. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks on October 16. The figure could therefore shift expectations for both October and December. These are forecasts, not a result.
MKNews Hub · Macedonia · October 13, 2026
